Throughout January, fear cast a long shadow. The longer it lingered, the more predictions about its staying power grew. Overall, my expectation is for volatility to remain throughout the year—with lower prices begetting higher prices that in turn could beget even lower prices if my view of slow growth gets upended by factual evidence of and for no growth. To be clear, that’s not what I’m predicting. Instead, I think we’ll manage through several dustups and wrangle moderate gains to this year’s ground. I’ve been keeping you up to speed on the volatile weekly markets and will, of course, weigh in again on them immediately below. In this issue there’s a not-to-be-missed interview with Matt Fruhan, manager of Mega Cap Stock (FGRTX), my deep dive into Fidelity’s large-cap growth fund group, and my updated Tactical Opportunities. Also, you will find information on a couple trades in the Annuity Growth and Annuity Growth & Income portfolios effective Friday, February 5. Read more
Another week’s worth of volatile markets, which, in the end, continue to suggest more of a flat line trend than a precipitous end. Not that a pullback of 10% to 15% from here couldn’t occur. Mood-wise, the market is ripe for such a downward push should fundamental evidence begin to match fear’s assumptions about a fall. But fundamental evidence has not done so—not this week, not last week, not last month … not for years in a row. So, why the nervousness? For about a year and a half, emotions, not facts on the ground, have been the drumbeat that the markets at home and abroad have been marching to. And I don’t think we will break out of this pattern anytime soon. Read more
The usual chorus of doomsayers has been dancing in the New Year market aisles. Reason (and the historical fail rate of such doomsayers) dictates being dubious about them. Nonetheless, there are things to be concerned about. Our proprietary trading algorithm is triggering a move to the bunkers, and right now I find myself wondering if that call is itself calling a bottom. For fundamental reasons, and for my fundamental portfolios, I hope that’s the case…but I know FSI’s success rate well enough to know that if it’s forecasting tougher times ahead, I’d be foolish to ignore it. I designed FSI to complement my investment approach by thinking through my fundamental perspective and taking more decisive action based on short-term market behavior. It is doing just that. Read more
Jim Lowell is Editor-in-Chief of the award-winning independent newsletters Fidelity Investor and Fidelity Sector Investor. Through his newsletters, Jim advises individual investors seeking superior performance from their Fidelity investments. He has also written several books on investing, Investing from Scratch (revised edition, Penguin, 2006) and What Every Fidelity Investor Needs to Know (Wiley, 2007) among them. Read more
|Growth & Income||-4.2%||8.8%|
|Annuity Growth & Income||-6.1%||5.4%|
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